The United States experienced a dramatic decline in immigration last year, a shift advocates and researchers say could have long-term consequences for the nation’s workforce, tax base and communities already struggling with population loss.
Between 2.2 million and 2.3 million immigrants voluntarily left the United States, according to figures presented during an American Community Media briefing. Some reportedly left to avoid family separation, while others departed after being encouraged to leave voluntarily with the possibility of returning legally in the future.
Another 675,000 people were deported, while approximately 1.1 million lost Temporary Protected Status, according to figures discussed during the briefing.
Jennie Murray, president/CEO of the National Immigration Forum, said those changes resulted in the United States experiencing net-negative immigration for the first time in its history.
The decline could have consequences far beyond immigration policy.
Immigrants account for approximately 13% of the U.S. population but 19% of the workforce, according to figures presented during the briefing. Murray said the loss of immigrant workers could mean fewer people paying taxes and contributing to Social Security while leaving employers with fewer workers to fill jobs.
The effects could be particularly significant in rural America, where many communities are already confronting aging populations and the departure of younger residents.
Tim Slack, a sociology professor at Penn State, said rural communities are becoming increasingly diverse even as their overall populations face significant demographic pressures. One in four adults and one in three children in rural areas are now nonwhite, he said.
“When young people leave a community, they take their reproductive capacity with them and go somewhere else to build a family,” Slack said. “So, it’s kind of a double whammy for a small town in terms of population.”
An aging population also creates greater demand for health care and other services at the same time communities need younger workers to provide them.
Immigrants have helped fill some of those gaps, including jobs in nursing homes and other facilities serving older Americans. Researchers have also documented what is sometimes called the ‘healthy migrant effect,’ in which immigrant populations tend to arrive with relatively strong health outcomes.
Rachel Perić, executive director of Welcoming America, said the current immigration climate threatens relationships that some communities spent years developing among longtime residents and newcomers.
“We can’t make communities whole and functional if people don’t feel they can put down roots,” Perić said.
The consequences are not limited to the workplace. Advocates say heightened immigration enforcement has caused some immigrants to avoid routine activities such as going to work, visiting doctors, buying groceries or attending religious services.
Mark Prosser, a former police chief who now serves as director of pastoral planning for the Catholic Diocese of Sioux City, Iowa, said the impact becomes visible as businesses struggle to fill jobs, schools consolidate and residents withdraw from community life.
Prosser said many people initially believed increased immigration enforcement would primarily target immigrants with serious criminal records.
“Many believed they were going to be removing the criminals,” Prosser said. “But it’s not the criminals. The majority being removed have no record.”
Some communities illustrate the other side of the immigration debate—places where newcomers have helped reverse years of population and economic decline.
Springfield, Ohio, had experienced decades of population loss before an influx of Haitian immigrants brought new workers and families into the community.
Dr. Carl Ruby, senior pastor at Central Christian Church in Springfield, said the newcomers have contributed to renewed economic activity, including housing development.
“There hadn’t been homes built in Springfield in quite some time, but there are now 3,000 new homes going up,” Ruby said. “A lot of that is our Haitian population.”
Ruby described the immigrants as reliable workers who frequently take overtime and fill positions employers otherwise struggle to staff.
At the same time, he said uncertainty surrounding immigration policy has created tremendous anxiety among Haitian families, including children fearful of being returned to a country where many experienced violence and instability.
Faith organizations and community groups in several parts of the country have responded by providing groceries, immigration assistance and other support to affected families.
For advocates, the debate increasingly involves more than who should be allowed to remain in the United States. It also raises questions about what happens to American communities when large numbers of working-age residents disappear.
With an aging population, worker shortages and declining populations already confronting parts of the country, immigration policy could ultimately influence everything from the availability of health care workers to whether businesses, schools and small communities have enough people to remain economically viable.
(This story is based on reporting by Lor Lee, a contributing writer for the North Dallas Gazette.)
