A new Tennessee Beacon Poll shows Marsha Blackburn maintaining a commanding lead in the Republican race for governor, while Democratic voters remain largely undecided heading into the 2026 election cycle.
According to the poll, Blackburn leads the Republican primary field with 63% support, widening her advantage from January polling. Congressman John Rose trails at 10%, while state Rep. Monty Fritts received five percent.
“With Sen. Blackburn at 63% and only 22% of Republican primary voters still undecided, the race is nearly settled on the Republican side, barring a massive shakeup,” said Mark Cunningham, Beacon’s senior fellow for public opinion. “Even if every undecided voter broke for one of her opponents, she would still come out on top by 30 points.”
On the Democratic side, however, the race remains far less settled. A majority of Democratic primary voters (62%) said they are still undecided.
Among declared candidates, Jerri Green led with 14%, followed by Kevin Lee McCants at 11% and Carnita Atwater at eight percent.
“The Democratic primary, however, is a completely different story,” Cunningham said. “With 62% of Democratic primary voters still undecided, the field is wide open.”
The survey also measured hypothetical general election matchups, showing Blackburn holding a sizable lead over Green if the election were held today.
Beyond the governor’s race, the poll highlighted several issues shaping political discussions across Tennessee, including voter ID laws, utility costs, energy policy and views on President Donald Trump.
According to the poll, Trump’s approval rating in Tennessee has declined to its lowest level since Beacon began tracking it in 2023. While he still maintains positive overall approval in the state, independents surveyed expressed increasingly negative views of his job performance.
Meanwhile, Bill Lee continues to hold favorable approval numbers overall, particularly among Republican voters.
The poll also found broad support for voter ID requirements in Tennessee. Eighty-four percent of respondents said they support requiring a valid photo ID to vote in state and local elections.
Support for the proposed federal SAVE Act (legislation that would require proof of citizenship for voter registration) was more divided but still received majority support overall.
Economic concerns also surfaced prominently in the survey results.
More than half of respondents said utilities such as electricity, water, gas and internet now consume more than 10% of their monthly household budgets. More than three-quarters reported that utility costs have increased during the past year, while many described those expenses as financially burdensome.
As a result, many Tennesseans surveyed expressed openness to expanding energy production through both traditional and renewable sources.
The poll found majority support for easing permitting requirements for new nuclear power plants, while support for solar and wind energy also remained strong across party lines.
The survey additionally asked voters about recognizing the U.S. Men’s National Hockey Team during the State of the Union address following its Olympic gold medal victory. A plurality of respondents, including some Democrats, supported the recognition despite broader national political debate surrounding the issue.
The Beacon Poll is one of several surveys expected to shape early political narratives ahead of Tennessee’s 2026 gubernatorial election cycle.
