Republican Marsha Blackburn holds a 21-point lead over Democrat Jerri Green in Tennessee’s race for governor, according to the latest Beacon Poll, which also shows President Donald Trump’s job approval rating falling below 50% among Tennessee voters for the first time in the poll’s history.
Blackburn leads Green 55% to 34% among likely voters, according to the August survey. The results come after Blackburn emerged from the Republican primary over U.S. Rep. John Rose and state Rep. Monty Fritts.
The poll also found 48% of Tennessee voters approve of Trump’s job performance, compared with 51% who disapprove. Beacon said it is the first time since it began conducting its Tennessee poll in 2023 that the president has received a net-negative job approval rating in the survey.
The result represents a shift from earlier Beacon surveys. In May, Trump remained above water in Tennessee, although the organization reported that his approval rating had been declining.
“This is a substantial development in a deep red state with a number of potentially competitive races this year,” Beacon Center CEO Justin Owen said. He added that the trend could influence how the national parties approach congressional races in Tennessee.
In Tennessee’s U.S. Senate contest, Republican incumbent Bill Hagerty leads Democrat Marquita Bradshaw 58% to 33% among likely voters, according to the poll. The two faced each other in 2020, when Hagerty defeated Bradshaw by 27 percentage points. The latest poll puts the gap at 25 points.
The survey also asked Tennessee voters about possible candidates for the 2028 presidential election. Among Republican primary voters surveyed, Vice President J.D. Vance received 56% support, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 22% and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 11%.
The potential Democratic field was more divided. Former Vice President Kamala Harris received 30%, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 18%, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 11%, U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 10%, Sen. Mark Kelly at eight percent, Sen. Jon Ossoff at six percent and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro at two percent.
Beyond politics, the poll examined Tennessee voters’ views of artificial intelligence and data centers.
Fifty-four percent approved of the public having access to AI tools such as ChatGPT, Gemini and Copilot, while 34% disapproved. Majorities or pluralities across Republican, Democratic and independent respondents expressed approval, according to the poll.
At the same time, the survey found considerable uncertainty about data centers. More than half of respondents said they did not know how many data centers operate in Tennessee, and many underestimated how long such facilities have existed.
The poll also found 61% opposed offering dedicated state tax incentives to attract data centers, while 27% supported the idea. In another finding, 53% said they believe artificial intelligence will eliminate more jobs than it creates, compared with seven percent who believe AI will create more jobs than it eliminates.
The Beacon Poll is a quarterly online survey conducted by Targoz Market Research for the Beacon Center of Tennessee. The August survey included 1,200 registered Tennessee voters and was conducted Aug. 15-26. The results were weighted by demographic, political, geographic and behavioral measures and have an estimated margin of error of plus or minus 2.77 percentage points.
